India’s exports to the United States have declined for the fourth consecutive month across nearly all sectors, according to a recent analysis by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
The report highlighted that between May and September 2025, India’s exports to its largest trading partner fell sharply by 37.5%, dropping from $8.8 billion to $5.5 billion. The decline is largely attributed to the steep US tariffs imposed earlier this year, which now total 50% for Indian goods, following an initial 10% levy in April, a rise to 25% in August, and further escalation to 50% later that month. These tariffs were partly introduced as a response to India’s purchase of discounted Russian oil.
The sectors hit hardest were those that previously enjoyed zero tariffs. Exports in this category fell 47%, from $3.4 billion in May to $1.8 billion in September. Smartphone exports, which had surged nearly 200% between April and September 2024, plunged 58% in the same period in 2025. Pharmaceutical exports also declined, falling 15.7% from $745.6 million to $628.3 million.
Labour-intensive industries such as textiles, gems and jewellery, chemicals, agri-foods, and machinery, which constitute about 60% of India’s US exports, experienced a 33% drop. Gems and jewellery exports collapsed nearly 60%, while solar panel shipments fell 61%, allowing competitors like Thailand and Vietnam to capture lost market share.
The GTRI noted that while industrial metals and auto parts faced milder effects due to uniform global duties, India’s competitiveness has sharply deteriorated compared with countries like China and Vietnam, which face lower tariffs. The analysis underscores the urgent need to address structural vulnerabilities in India’s export sectors amid these punitive tariffs.